Weathernotes Archive November 2000

Weathernotes for Wednesday, November 29, 2000

Today's 1024z HPC Quantitative Precipitation Forecast shows somewhat more precipitation in Northern California than yesterday's, with perhaps a slightly higher QPF for the northern reaches of the Kern River basin and near trace amounts along the coast down through Santa Barbara. Based on current forecasts and data there won't be much rain south of a Monterey-Fresno line. The !2z ETA shows precipitation extending further south than the 06z AVN. We'll see!

In the medium range there is still much uncertainty. "Spaghetti" plot of ensemble members for Sunday continue to show a developing trough along the coast, but computer models have produced a wide variety of possible scenarios. At least it appears Southern California's weather will be unsettled early next week, with a chance of rain.

The 6-10 day forecast for Southern California issued 11/28/00 is for below average temperatures and normal precipitation.

More information concerning Southern California weather can be found on our WEATHER LINKS page.

Weathernotes for Tuesday, November 28, 2000

Mammoth Mountain has recorded about 18 inches of snow so far this November, but overall the far West has seen below average precipitation the last 28 days. If current short and medium term forecasts verify, at least the northern half of the state should see some wetter weather over the next week or so.

The 12z ETA and 06z AVN show a moderately strong system affecting Northern California later tonight into Wednesday. The current HPC forecast indicates about 1.0" to 1.5" water equivalent in the northern and central Sierra from early Wednesday to early Thursday.

Today's ensemble based precipitation probability maps suggest precipitation amounts will fall off dramatically to the south, with little snow south of the Kings-Kern divide.

In the medium range, models have been hinting at a change to a somewhat wetter pattern next week for Central, and possibly, Southern California. The "spaghetti" plot of ensemble members for Sunday indicates the possibility of a trough developing along the west coast, but its strength and position are uncertain.

The current 6-10 day forecast for Southern Californiaissued 11/27/00 is for below average temperatures and above average precipitation.

More information concerning Southern California weather can be found on our WEATHER LINKS page.

Weathernotes for Wednesday, November 22, 2000

This morning's QPF map from HPC indicates that Southern California should remain precipitation free on Thanksgiving. At the moment, mostly clear skies are expected with some wind below canyons and passes. No precipitation is expected through the beginning of next week. (Color version of QPF map.)

The current pattern reflects the Potential Winter Weather Impacts forecast in the 2000-2001 Winter Outlook.

The current 6-10 day forecast for Southern California is for above average temperatures and below average precipitation.

More information concerning Southern California weather can be found on our WEATHER LINKS page.

Weathernotes for Thursday, November 7, 2000

Some gusty winds below the canyons and passes, but generally clear, dry weather for Election Day 2000. This morning the Bell Canyon RAWS recorded a gust of 66 mph.

Ensemble means show a high amplitude ridge developing in the eastern Pacific with an associated trough over the West. This trough is forecast to retrograde with it's axis more or less bisecting California, resulting in a chance of showers on the southerly side of the trough. This is reflected in the 110700 Precipitation Outlook from COLA/IGES Climate Outlook page.

The MRF shows this ridge building to the point that it nearly pinches off, with some energy undercutting the high. With such a high amplitude configuration there is a lot of uncertainty and this is seen in the Ensemble Forecast Spaghetti and Standard Deviation plots. We'll have to see how it develops.

More information concerning Southern California weather can be found on our WEATHER LINKS page.

Weathernotes for Thursday, November 2, 2000

The short term models and ensembles are now less enthusiastic about the wrap around moisture associated with the upper low forecast to develop over Southern California during the next 24-36 hours.

Today's ensemble forecasts for Friday give a probability of 10% or less of 0.1" of precipitation in southern California, with the chances increasing to about 30% on Saturday.

Current medium range forecasts show no precipitation in California through the middle of next week. Ensembles show a persistent trough over the Rockies and mid-West with dry northerly to northwesterly flow over California through the middle of the month, but this time of year things can change quickly. We'll see.

More information concerning Southern California weather can be found on our WEATHER LINKS page.