An unseasonably strong Pacific storm system, primed with the remnants of Typhoon Melor, and powered by an extended Pacific jet, is expected to pound California early next week with high winds, heavy rain, and heavy snow at the higher elevations of the Sierra.

Medium range model forecasts suggest that the northern two-thirds of the state will see the highest rainfall totals, but over the last couple of days, the GFS has been trending wetter in Southern California. Significant rainfall in the Los Angeles area, and recently burned areas in the San Gabriel Mountains, appears to be a possibility. Forecast details should become more clear as we move closer to the event and into the forecast window of the high resolution models.

The Aug-Sep Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), decreased from 0.978 to 0.754, however other El Niño signals appear to be rebounding. In the last two weeks low level equatorial westerly anomalies have increased significantly. The reduction in the strength of the trade winds, and a downwelling Kelvin wave resulting from a very strong westerly wind burst already appear to be increasing upper ocean heat content in the central equatorial Pacific. The 30 day moving Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is still positive, but is dropping, and should return to negative territory over the next week or so.

The foci of recurring equatorial westerly wind bursts and enhanced west-central Pacific convection has been slowly migrating eastward. The most recent round of enhanced convection was centered at about 160E. This is consistent with a developing El Niño, and may have helped to extend the current Pacific jet following an East Asian mountain torque event. However, total and relative AAM remain negative, and are lower than is generally the case during a developing El Niño.

Moderate El Niños come in many flavors and have varying impacts. Under the guise of such El Niños Los Angeles experienced its second wettest water year on record in 2004-2005, when 37.25 inches of rain was recorded; then in 2006-2007 had its driest water year on record, when only 3.21" was recorded.

More information concerning Southern California weather can be found using our WEATHER LINKS page.

The frontal band associated with the first Pacific upper level low system and trough of Autumn 2009 is producing some showers in Central California. Some snow showers could occur at the higher elevations of the Sierra. A strong onshore flow has dramatically cooled temperatures throughout the state.

Today's cool temps are a welcome respite from several days of hot weather. Wednesday and Thursday of last week, Downtown Los Angeles (USC) recorded a high of 100°F; and Saturday, Woodland Hills (Pierce College) reported a high of 107°F. Temperatures are expected to rebound Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, but are forecast to cool again over the weekend.

Similar to what occurred in July there has been little change in equatorial Pacific SST anomalies, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has switched from negative to positive, the Aug-Sep Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) value is not expected to significantly increase, and the Global Wind Oscillation (GWO) has dropped its orbit to a lower relative AAM state.

On the plus side, a large area of enhanced convection has redeveloped in the West Central Pacific from about 150E to the dateline, and another of a series of Westerly Wind Bursts (WWB) is occurring -- the strongest observed so far during this ENSO transition. This WWB will likely be followed by another eastward propagating downwelling Kelvin wave, which could help increase upper-ocean heat content anomalies in the equatorial Pacific.

Moderate El Niños come in many flavors and have varying impacts. Under the guise of such El Niños Los Angeles experienced its second wettest water year on record in 2004-2005, when 37.25 inches of rain was recorded; then in 2006-2007 had its driest water year on record, when only 3.21" was recorded.

More information concerning Southern California weather can be found using our WEATHER LINKS page.

After spending the last week of May and most of June on the positive relative AAM (El Niño) side of the Global Wind Oscillation (GWO) phase space, the GWO slipped back into negative relative AAM territory the last week of June and stayed there most of July. Following the lead of the atmosphere, development of the current El Niño also slowed in July.

During July there was little change in equatorial Pacific SST anomalies; the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) became strongly positive; and the June-July Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) value, reported August 5, increased by only 0.05.

However, during July, enhanced tropical convection shifted from the western Indian Ocean to the west central Pacific, extending from about 140E to the dateline. This was followed by the development of a strong Westerly Wind Burst (WWB) in the western Pacific. Coincident with the WWB was a dramatic reduction in the SOI, and an an orbit of the GWO to a somewhat higher global relative AAM state. These events are consistent with a developing El Niño.

According to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Diagnostic Discussion issued August 6 by the Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS, "current conditions and model forecasts favor the continued development of a weak-to-moderate strength El Niño into the Northern Hemisphere Fall 2009, with the likelihood of at least a moderate strength El Niño (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index of +1.0°C or greater) during the Northern Hemisphere Winter 2009-10."

How often are Summer temps hotter in Seattle than the San Fernando Valley? From July 26 to August 3, 2009, the Seattle area suffered through a heat wave that broke numerous records, including several "all-time" temperature records. On July 29, 2009 Sea-Tac reached 103°F, Bellingham 96°F, and Seattle WFO (Sandpoint) 105°F, the highest temperature ever recorded at these stations.

More information concerning Southern California weather can be found using our WEATHER LINKS page.

The last of a series of storms that have been producing rain and snow in the western U.S. the past several days moved eastward and (mostly) out of the region today. According to preliminary NWS data, Downtown Los Angeles (CQT) recorded 2.00 inches of rain in the course of the event, bringing its water year total to 4.41 inches -- 1.54 inches above normal.

Precipitation totals in the Los Angeles area from Friday morning to this morning generally ranged from 2-5 inches in the basin and valleys, and from 5 to 10 inches or more in the local foothills and mountains. San Marcos Pass, near Santa Barbara recorded nearly 11 inches of rain, and OPIDS Camp, near Mt. Wilson, recorded nearly 13 inches of precipitation. Here is an archived copy of a NWS Public Information Statement with preliminary rainfall totals for the rain event, and an AHPS Precipitation Analysis of California precipitation for the 7 day period ending 4:00 a.m. this morning.

According to today's Summary of Snow Water Equivalents from California Cooperative Snow Surveys, the series of storms increased the Sierra Snowpack to 111% of normal for the date -- up from 60% at the end of 2007.

Another fast moving shortwave is forecast to primarily affect areas north of Pt. Conception Tuesday into Wednesday, with only a small chance of showers in the Los Angeles area.

So far this rain season, Southern California has dodged a La Nina bullet. This AHPS Precipitation Analysis for the water year to date indicates much of the area having received near normal to above normal precipitation. Even though the Climate Prediction Center's revised precipitation outlook for January, issued December 31, indicates above normal precipitation in the western U.S., the JFM Precipitation Outlook, issued December 20, remains pessimistic. We'll see!

Updated January 10, 2008. The ESRL-PSD Composite ENSO plots page was updated today to correct an issue that resulted in the wrong set of years being used for its Winter La Nina composites. As a result the La Nina composite precipitation map in the October 9, 2007 Weathernotes has been updated. Note that the average La Niña rainfall indicated for coastal Southern California is in the 7.0-10.5 inch range, rather than the 10-15 inch range previously indicated in the ESRL-PSD graphic.

More information concerning Southern California weather can be found using our WEATHER LINKS page.