Following is a chart comparing the 2015-16 El Nino to warm ENSO episodes that have occurred since 1950. The warm episodes are based on the revised Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) which is calculated using the three month running mean of ERSST.v4 SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region with multiple-centered 30 year base periods. Unless noted the warm episodes are those specified in the CPC's tabulation of Cold & Warm Episodes by Season. A description of the parameters follows the chart. With the exception of years prior to 1957, a Nov-Mar GWO phase space plot is included for each warm episode.
|
Year
|
Jul-Sep
AAM
|
Nov-Mar
AAM
|
Peak MEI
|
Peak MEI Season
|
Peak
ONI
|
Peak ONI Season
|
L.A. Rain
|
GWO
Phase Plot
|
| 1951-521 |
-- |
-- |
0.822 |
JULAUG |
0.9 |
SON |
26.21 |
-- |
| 1952-532 |
-- |
-- |
0.788 |
APRMAY |
0.7 |
FMA-AMJ |
9.46 |
-- |
| 1953-542 |
-- |
-- |
0.484 |
AUGSEP |
0.8 |
ASO, SON, OND |
11.99 |
-- |
| 1957-583 |
-- |
0.773 |
1.474 |
DECJAN, JANFEB |
1.7 |
DJF |
21.13 |
|
| 1958-59 |
-0.919 |
-0.206 |
0.788 |
JANFEB |
0.6 |
NDJ, DJF, JFM |
5.58 |
|
| 1963-64 |
0.005 |
0.046 |
0.867 |
OCTNOV, DECJAN |
1.2 |
SON, OND |
7.93 |
|
| 1965-66 |
-0.826 |
-0.748 |
1.436 |
JULAUG |
1.8 |
OND |
20.44 |
|
| 1968-69 |
0.130 |
0.513 |
0.844 |
JANFEB |
1.0 |
JFM |
27.47 |
|
| 1969-70 |
0.358 |
0.413 |
0.670 |
OCTNOV |
0.8 |
ASO, SON, OND |
7.77 |
|
| 1972-73 |
-0.096 |
-0.239 |
1.827 |
JUNJUL, JULAUG |
2.0 |
OND |
21.26 |
|
| 1976-77 |
0.284 |
-0.828 |
1.029 |
AUGSEP |
0.8 |
OND,NDJ |
12.31 |
|
| 1977-78 |
-0.646 |
1.008 |
0.993 |
SEPOCT, OCTNOV |
0.8 |
OND, NDJ |
33.44 |
|
| 1979-804 |
0.496 |
-0.013 |
0.996 |
NOVDEC |
0.6 |
NDJ, DJF |
26.98 |
|
| 1982-83 |
0.938 |
2.337 |
3.011 |
FEBMAR |
2.1 |
OND,NDJ, DJF |
31.25 |
|
| 1986-875 |
0.232 |
0.019 |
2.140 |
APRMAY87 |
1.2 |
JFM |
7.66 |
|
| 1987-885 |
1.153 |
1.000 |
1.982 |
JULAUG |
1.6 |
JAS, ASO |
12.48 |
|
| 1991-92 |
-0.008 |
0.808 |
2.269 |
MARAPR |
1.6 |
DJF |
21.00 |
|
| 1994-95 |
-0.422 |
0.764 |
1.419 |
SEPOCT |
1.0 |
NDJ |
24.35 |
|
| 1997-98 |
1.811 |
1.481 |
3.049 |
JULAUG,AUGSEP |
2.3 |
OND, NDJ |
31.01 |
|
| 2002-03 |
0.047 |
0.324 |
1.199 |
DECJAN |
1.3 |
OND |
16.49 |
|
| 2004-05 |
-0.020 |
0.747 |
1.055 |
FEBMAR |
0.7 |
JAS-NDJ |
37.25 |
|
| 2006-07 |
0.143 |
-0.322 |
1.322 |
OCTNOV |
1.0 |
NDJ |
3.21 |
|
| 2009-10 |
-0.103 |
0.303 |
1.521 |
JANFEB |
1.3 |
NDJ,DJF |
16.36 |
|
| 2014-156 |
-0.526 |
-0.297 |
0.997, 1.567 |
MAYJUN14, APRMAY15 |
0.6 |
OND, NDJ |
8.52 |
|
| 2015-167 |
1.313 |
1.637 |
2.527 |
AUGSEP |
2.3 |
NDJ |
9.36 |
|
|
1. AAM and AAM tendency anomaly data for 1951-52 not available.
2. Continuous warm episode from DJF 1952/53 to DJF 1954.
3. AAM anomaly is average for Jan-Mar 1958.
4. Warm episode per ERSST.v4, but not ERSST.v3b.
5. Continuous warm episode from ASO 1986 to JFM 1988.
6. Warm episode per ERSST.v3b, but not ERSST.v4.
7. Data as of April 3, 2016.
|
Jul-Sep AAM & Nov-Mar AAM: The mean of the global relative atmospheric angular momentum anomaly for the periods July 1 to September 30 amd November 1 to March 31 of the following year. GWO phase space data is calculated using code from the Global Synoptic Dynamic Model page of the PSD Map Room Climate Products. Reference Weickmann and Berry, 2008.
Peak MEI: The peak seasonal value of the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI). Reference Wolter and Timlin, 1993, 1998. MEI values are normalized and may shift as new data is added.
Peak MEI Season: The peak bi-monthly season(s) for which the MEI is computed.
Peak ONI: The peak Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) based on SST anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region. Reference Climate Prediction Center Cold & Warm Episodes by Season (Multiple centered 30-year base periods.)
Peak ONI Season: The peak tri-monthly season(s) for which the ONI is computed.
L.A. Rain: The July-June rainfall year precipitation total in inches for Downtown Los Angeles (USC). Reference WRCC LOS ANGELES DWTN USC CAMPUS, CA.
GWO Phase Space Plot: Plot of global relative atmospheric angular momentum anomaly vs. global relative atmospheric angular momentum tendency anomaly for the period November 1 to March 31 of the following year. Data is calculated using code from the Global Synoptic Dynamic Model page of the PSD Map Room Climate Products. Reference Weickmann and Berry, 2008.