The active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is enhancing El Nino convection in the equatorial Pacific, increasing the probability of above average rainfall in California over the next two weeks. Here are today's 6-10 day outlook and 8-14 day outlook periods from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC). Once again, a number of the CPC's best fitting 6-10 day outlook analogs and 8-14 day outlook analogs are from wet El Nino years.

Today's Global Wind Oscillation (GWO) phase plot reflects the atmosphere's response to the MJO, and enhanced central equatorial Pacific convection. ECMWF-based 250 hPa streamfunction anomalies from 01/29/10 00:00 GMT appear to be consistent with the ERSL/PSD phase 7 MJO streamfunction composite and phase 6-7 GWO streamfunction composite centered on January 27.

Another strong Westerly Wind Burst (WWB) is also occurring, and appears to be one of the mechanisms associated with MJO enhancement of deep El Nino convection. This enhancement and resulting feedback could slow the decline of, or even increase, equatorial Pacific SST anomalies in the weeks ahead.

Both the ECMWF and the GFS are projecting a return to a wet pattern in California next week. The first skirmish occurs in central and northern California over the weekend, and then a transition to a much wetter, and possibly persistent, pattern is forecast to occur during the week. We'll see!

More information concerning Southern California weather can be found using our WEATHER LINKS page.