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In a situation that has become too familiar this rain season, Sunday evening a trough is forecast to dig down the backside of a ridge along the West Coast. Model forecasts have varied from run to run, but the trough is expected to produce some rain in our area Sunday evening into Monday. A more westward track, over the Pacific, would likely produce more rain, and a more eastward track less.
This generally wetter pattern may continue into the 8-14 day period. The active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the Global Wind Oscillation (GWO) are supporting a general circulation pattern that is favorable to West Coast troughs. In addition, a major Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event is underway and associated high latitude blocking might eventually result in a southward shift of the storm track over the U.S.
Both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day precipitation outlook from the CPC are indicate the possibility of above average rainfall in Southern California. We'll see!
Update 02/10/09. Here are the updated and corrected storm totals from the NWS for the period 4:00 a.m. Thursday to 4:00 a.m. Sunday. It looks like Wednesday's system should fall apart south of Pt. Conception, but if recent model runs hold true, Southern California is in store for more wet weather. Relatively weak shortwaves are forecast for Friday and Saturday, but these set the stage for more potent systems Sunday and mid-week. We'll see!
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