It's been a couple of weeks since an upper level low set rainfall records for the date at several Southern California locations, and pushed water year rainfall totals above normal at Los Angeles. Since then we've had almost no rain, and as of yesterday, Downtown Los Angeles (USC) rainfall has dropped to about six-tenths of an inch below normal. If a storm later this weekend works out as expected, we could be back above normal by Monday night.

Several factors could affect the forecast. As we've seen earlier this season, the computer models don't do a particularly good job with high amplitude flows, retrograding ridges and digging troughs. Throw into the mix a strong 150-170 kt. jet stream, sub-tropical moisture being advected from Hawaii (nearly) to the Aleutians, and cold air being drawn down from Canada and Alaska, and there is the potential for high impact weather.

A chance of showers is forecast Saturday into Sunday, but at the moment, the main event is forecast for Sunday evening through Monday. HPC's QPF for that period indicates rainfall amounts ranging from about 0.75 inch to 2 inches or more in the mountains. We'll see!

More information concerning Southern California weather can be found using our WEATHER LINKS page.

Happy Thanksgiving! Our record-setting upper low system is slowly moving east out of the area, but this morning there's still some shower activity occurring south and east of the Los Angeles basin. The best chance of showers today is in the mountains, and areas south and east of the basin, but a shower could pop up just about anywhere in Southern California.

Rainfall totals for the storm have generally ranged from 1.0 to 2.0 inches in the coastal and valley areas, with some higher amounts recorded in foothill and mountain locations. Rainfall records for November 26th were broken at several locations, including Lancaster, Palmdale, Sandberg, UCLA, Burbank, Woodland Hills, and San Gabriel. OPIDS Camp, in the San Gabriel Mountains has recorded 3.29 inches. Here are some preliminary rainfall totals from the NWS.

Through yesterday, Downtown Los Angeles (USC) has recorded a storm total of 1.60 inches, bringing the water year total to 1.87 inches, which is 0.17 inches above normal for the date.

More information concerning Southern California weather can be found using our WEATHER LINKS page.

In the past week the weather models have been all over the map -- and sometimes off of it -- trying to come up with a forecast for this week and the Thanksgiving holidays. Now that a potent looking upper level low system is bearing down on the Southland, the 18z NAM and 18z GFS both agree we are going to get drenched.

The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) is projecting from one to two inches of rain over a large area of Southern California. BUFKIT analysis of 18z data for Van Nuys generates rainfall totals of in excess of 2 inches for the storm. Depending on the strength of the southerly inflow, rainfall totals could be higher on south facing foothill and mountain slopes.

Radar is already showing some echoes aloft, and some showers could occur overnight and into tomorrow. Rain is expected to begin in earnest during the day tomorrow, perhaps as late as tomorrow afternoon or evening, and taper off late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

NOAA has just released their 2008-2009 Winter Outlook. The precipitation outlook for December through February indicates an equal chance of below normal, near normal, or above normal precipitation for California. The IRI Multi Model Seasonal Forecast for Dec-Jan-Feb indicates below average precipitation is slightly more likely in southern third of California.

Update 11/25/08. BUFKIT analysis of 12z NAM and GFS data for Van Nuys isn't quite as wet as yesterday's 18z run. Over the next 36 hours, the 12z GFS generates about 0.8 inch, and the 12z NAM about 1.7 inch of rain, with maximum rain rates of about 0.4 inch/hour. Rain is expected to move into the Los Angeles area later this afternoon or evening.

More information concerning Southern California weather can be found using our WEATHER LINKS page.

Downtown Los Angeles (USC) happened to be under the right cloud yesterday, and recorded 0.02 inch of rain. There's a continuing chance of showers in Southern California through the weekend. The area could use some rain. The last storm to produce more than a couple tenths of inch of rain at Downtown Los Angeles was back on February 24, 2008 -- more than eight months ago.

Last year, California's rain season might have been scripted by Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. Lowland rain totals and the Sierra snowpack were well above normal through the end of February, and then the spigot was turned off. The storm track shifted north, and California had its driest March to May on record. (The March 29, 2008 post in Ed Berry's Atmospheric Insights blog describes the events that may have led to and maintained this shift.)

Which rain season personality will emerge this Winter? Earlier this year the equatorial Pacific tried to transition to El Nino, but the atmosphere didn't cooperate. As measured by the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), the ENSO state has returned to the weak La Nina threshold. And as measured by the Global Wind Oscillation (GWO), an uncooperative atmosphere has continued to cycle through a La Nina base state.

This suggests a winter precipitation outlook with a La Nina flavor -- similar to last year. This precipitation map, generated by the ESRL-PSD Composite ENSO plots page, shows the mean November-March precipitation for the U.S. during 9 La Niña events from 1948 to the present. The average La Niña rainfall indicated for coastal Southern California is in the 7.0-10.5 inch range. Last season's November-March rainfall in Downtown Los Angeles was about 12 inches.

Here's the current Nov-Dec-Jan precipitation outlook issued October 16 by the Climate Prediction Center. The "EC" means an equal chance of below normal, near normal, or above normal precipitation. The IRI Multi Model Seasonal Forecast for Nov-Dec-Jan is similar. We'll see!

Update 11/4/08. Here are the NWS Public Information Statements with preliminary rainfall totals for the period from Friday evening to Sunday morning, and from overnight last night to 10:00 a.m. this morning. The current Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day and 8-14 Precipitation Outlooks project below normal rainfall for Southern California. In Atmospheric Insights, Ed Berry paints a scenario with an extended North Pacific Jet collapsing into a strong western U.S. trough in the week 2-3 timeframe. We'll see!

Update 11/1/08. Did a trail run this morning in the Pt. Mugu State Park Area. Over the course of 3+ hours watched 2-3 waves of convection march northeast from the Santa Barbara Channel across the Oxnard Plain. We were showered on a few times, but were very happy to be east of these training T-storms and heavy rain. Here is a NWS Public Information Statement with some rainfall totals as of 11:00 a.m.

More information concerning Southern California weather can be found using our WEATHER LINKS page.

Downtown Los Angeles recorded a trace of rain, and a few other stations in Southern California recorded meager, but measurable, precipitation Monday. Where it did rain, amounts of a few hundredths of an inch or less were the norm. A good cell must have developed over the southwestern San Gabriel Mountains -- a NWS technical discussion mentioned that 0.5 inch was recorded at Big Tujunga Dam.

Following our "welcome to Summer" heatwave back in June, summertime temperatures have generally been seasonable. Yesterday, Los Angeles Pierce College recorded a high of 102°F, and inland temperatures today appear to be running a little warmer.

This weekend temperatures are expected to drop dramatically as a Pacific storm system and it's unseasonably strong 165+ kt jet affect the west coast this Friday into Saturday. If this morning's 12z GFS verifies, as much as 3-4 inches of precipitation could occur in the mountains of Northern California, Oregon and Washington. At high elevation some of this precip could be in the form of snow.

The front associated with the trough is currently forecast to hold together south of Pt. Conception and could produce some showers in the Los Angeles area on Saturday, particularly in the mountains. A BUFKIT analysis of 12z GFS data generates about 0.3 inch of rain at Van Nuys, but given the time of year, and the ample time remaining between now and Saturday, we'll have to see!

Ed Berry first mentioned the possibility of an "anomalous extended North Pacific Ocean jet collapsing into a western USA trough" in a September 6, 2008 post on Atmospheric Insights, and refined the projection, including a timeframe, in subsequent posts.

Update 10/06/08. Saturday's trough and front behaved about as expected with scattered light rainfall around the area. Precipitation amounts generally ranged from a trace or less to about 0.1 inch or so in some foothill and mountain locations.

Update 10/03/08. Focus of the incoming storm system continues to be Northern California and the Pacific Northwest. A BUFKIT analysis of 12z NAM data shows the expected north to south gradient in projected precipitation. About 0.5 inch is projected at Monterey, 0.2 inch at San Luis Obisbo, 0.1 inch at Santa Barbara, and 0.06 inch at Van Nuys. The 09z SREF Ensembles suggest a high probability, low precipitation event in the Los Angeles area with about a 90% probability of more than 0.01 inch of rain, but less than a 10% probability of more than 0.1 inch. We'll see!

More information concerning Southern California weather can be found using our WEATHER LINKS page.

Monsoonal flow that began last Thursday has resulted in numerous thunderstorms in the mountains and deserts of Southern California, with flash flooding and debris flows reported in several locations.

Areas in or near recently burned terrain are particularly susceptible, and flash floods and debris flows appear to have originated in the 2007 Oak Fire burn area in the eastern Sierra, and the still burning Piute Fire burn area near Lake Isabella.

This sequence of three GOES-WEST VIS/IR satellite images from NRL's NEXSAT web site shows the explosive development of a convective cell north of Mt. Whitney on Saturday afternoon. This appears to be the thunderstorm that produced the heavy rain in the area burned by the Oak Fire, and resulted in the Oak Creek debris flow near Independence. Here's an AVI loop, generated on the NEXSAT web site, for the period 3:00 p.m to 6:00 p.m. PDT on Saturday.

A particularly large thunderstorm cell/complex developed in the Sierra Nevada south of Mt. Whitney midday Saturday and drifted south down the Kern River drainage over the course of the afternoon. At about 2:45 p.m. the cell/complex was centered near the confluence of the Little Kern River and N.F. Kern River and measured about 44 miles in diameter. Here's a Google Earth image of the cell/complex with a 250m resolution True Color Aqua cloud layer imported from the MODIS Rapid Response System.

This GOES-East/West Precipitable Water composite from 9:00 this morning indicates precipitable water values as high as 1.6" in some areas of Southern California, and the possibility of more mountain and desert thunderstorms continues today.

Update July 25, 2008. The large cell/complex that developed south of Mt. Whitney on Saturday, July 12, and drifted south down the Kern River drainage appears to have produced the flash flooding and debris flows on Erskine Creek and other creeks in the Lake Isabella area late Saturday afternoon. This cell/complex can also be seen in sequence of three GOES-WEST VIS/IR satellite images and the AVI loop previously referenced.

More information concerning Southern California weather can be found using our WEATHER LINKS page.

Temperatures today at Los Angeles Pierce College in Woodland Hills appear to be running about a degree hotter than yesterday, when a new record high for the date of 109°F was recorded at the campus weather station.

A BUFKIT analysis of 12z data for Van Nuys shows temps peaking today at about 107°F, followed by a slow cooling trend into next week, with high temps dropping down into the high eighties. In this graph of temperatures, the red line is the 2-meter temperature and the blue line is the surface "skin" temperature.

Equatorial Pacific SSTs continue the transition to neutral conditions. This TAO section plot of 5-day Depth Average Temperature clearly shows the change in state with a marked increase in sub-surface temperatures, particularly in the far eastern and western equatorial Pacific.

It looks like Downtown Los Angeles (USC) will end the July 1, 2007 to June 30, 2008 water year with 13.53 inches of rain recorded. This is 91% of the 1921-2006 average of 14.87 inches.

Update Monday, June 23, 2008. On Friday, Los Angeles Pierce College in Woodland Hills eventually reached a record-setting high of 111°F! Here is an archived copy of a NWS Los Angeles/Oxnard Record Event Report listing record highs from around the area for Friday, June 20.

More information concerning Southern California weather can be found using our WEATHER LINKS page.

More Wet Weather Possible Today and Tomorrow.

The unseasonably energetic upper level low that replaced our unseasonably strong high has resulted in dramatic weather in Southern California, including heavy rain, hail, thunderstorms, lightning, and even a pair of tornadoes near March Air Force base. This UCAR regional radar image from yesterday at 5:00 p.m. shows the intense cell that likely spawned the tornadoes.

In Los Angeles County, very heavy rain was recorded in the San Gabriel Valley. According to a NWS Public Information Statement, as of 7:00 p.m. yesterday, 2.29" was recorded at Santa Fe Dam, 1.51" at Whitter Narrows, and 1.42" at the San Gabriel River at Valley. Yesterday, Downtown Los Angeles (USC) recorded 0.05 inch of rain, bringing the water year total to 13.47 inches.

Intellicast radar shows showers continuing in Southern California this morning. The upper level low is forecast to remain over Southern California into Sunday, and BUFKIT analysis of 12z NAM data for several Southern California stations (VNY, LAX, ONT) suggest on and off rain showers may occur through Sunday morning. As long as the cut-off upper low remains over the area there is also the possibility of an isolated heavy shower or thunderstorm developing. We'll see!

Update Sunday, May 26, 2008. Here is an archived copy of a NWS Public Information Statement with rainfall totals for this event through 6:00 p.m. Saturday.

More information concerning Southern California weather can be found using our WEATHER LINKS page.

Chance of a Shower Next Weekend?

An unseasonably strong and extended Pacific jetstream has resulted in a very high amplitude high pressure ridge over the West Coast with record and near record temperatures seen from Seattle to San Diego.

Yesterday, Woodland Hills set a new high temperature record for the date of 101°F. Record high temperatures were also recorded at Ojai, Sandberg, Santa Ana, El Cajon, Red Bluff, Redding, Sacramento, Stockton, Modesto, San Jose, Eureka and several other stations in California. Triple digit highs were recorded across much of the interior of the state.

It's hot again today, and will be hot again tomorrow, but the GFS, ECMWF and other guidance is suggesting that as the extended Pacific jet collapses, the west coast ridge will retrograde off the coast and be replaced by a trough by Memorial Day Weekend. This would result in cooler weather in California, and even the possibility of showers in some areas, such as the Sierra and our local mountains. We'll see!

More information concerning Southern California weather can be found using our WEATHER LINKS page.

In it's April 30 ENSO Wrap-Up, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology characterizes Pacific climate patterns as being generally neutral, "with the majority of indicators returning to near-normal levels." The April 28 ENSO Update from the CPC suggests that La Niña will continue through May-July 2008, but many of the factors discussed indicate general weakening of the cold ENSO episode.

We've had only a smattering of rain at Downtown Los Angeles since 0.46 inch was recorded back on February 24. A miniscule 0.01 inch was recorded on March 15, and 0.04 inch on April 2. These NOAA/NWS AHPS Precipitation Analyses map the 60 day Departure from Normal Precipitation and 60 day Percent of Normal Precipitation for the southwestern U.S., as of April 30, 2008.

As of May 1, the water year rainfall total for Downtown Los Angeles (USC) stands at 13.42 inches. This is 90% of the 1921-2006 average of 14.87 inches. According to the 1921-2006 dataset, the average amount of precipitation in May and June has been 0.3 inch and 0.1 inch, respectively. Today's NWS 6-10 Day and 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlooks for Southern California continues to indicate Normal precipitation. We'll see!

More information concerning Southern California weather can be found using our WEATHER LINKS page.

A blustery Spring storm is expected to produce measurable rain over much of Southern California tomorrow. As has often been the case this year, the 12z NAM and 12z GFS are at odds, with the NAM generating less than 0.25 inch at Los Angeles, and the GFS more than 0.5 inch.

Today's NWS Precipitation Outlooks for Southern California indicate normal precipitation in the 6-10 day period and below normal for the 8-14 day period. We'll see!

More information concerning Southern California weather can be found using our WEATHER LINKS page.

A weak cold front held together a little better than expected, producing a few showers in the Los Angeles area early Sunday morning. Here is an archived PDF of a NWS Public Information Statement with some preliminary rainfall totals as of 5:00 p.m. No measurable rain was recorded at Downtown Los Angeles (USC- KCQT).

Only 0.01 inch of rain was recorded at Downtown Los Angeles (USC- KCQT) the entire month of March, pulling the water year rainfall total more than a 0.5 inch below normal for the first time this rain season. It looks like there's a pretty good chance of some rain Wednesday. We'll see!

More information concerning Southern California weather can be found using our WEATHER LINKS page.